Tuesday, December 12, 2017
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Arizona poll samples twice as many Democrats

Samuel Maxime

Editor-in-Chief

PHOENIX, Arizona, US (sentinel.ht) – The Clinton campaign has given up on actually campaigning for votes in swing states to instead run a psy-op which began with an ABC poll released Sunday.

The Washington Post reported Monday morning that Hillary Clinton is aimed at winning the reliably red state of Arizona. Fortune magazine also put out an article, saying that the Democratic presidential candidate, herself, would be flying down to Arizona to campaign.

It follows the release of the Arizona Republic poll where Democrats made up 58% of the sample. Republicans were 24% and Independents were 19%. This means, in a reliably red state, Democrats are more than twice as many as Republicans and the majority.

Arizona Republic vs Actual Voter Data
Party AR Actual Var.
Dems 58% 30% 24%
Reps 24% 35% 11%
Inds 19% 35% 16%

Despite the overnight growth of the Democratic party in AZ, or the meandering of the sample, the poll only resulted in a meager 5% point lead for Hillary Clinton over her Republican opponent. When thrown into the Real Clear Politics average of polls though, Hillary Clinton, is for the first time, leading in Arizona.

Either, the Clinton campaign, Washington Post, Fortune, CNN pundits and others are incapable of critically analyzing polling results, or Hillary Clinton has ceded actually trying to campaign in the real swing states and has decided to run a psychological operation. The Clinton campaign is hoping to drive down turnout by declaring the race over 2 weeks from the vote.

One of the emails released by Wikileaks on Sunday at least showed the propensity of Clinton campaign manager, John Podesta in an engaging in oversampling. In an email, he recommended oversampling polls. “So we can maximize what we get out of our media polling,” he wrote.

A file attached to the email included a 37-page guide, where, for example, it said:

In, Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:
Research, micro-targeting & polling projects

  • Over-sample Hispanics
  • Use Spanish language interviewing
  • Over-sample the Native American population

The Arizona poll, like many others, do not provide the demographic breakdown of their poll, so it cannot be determined whether the sampling of Blacks and Hispanics reflect the accurately the electorate.

None the less, it is clear from their breakdown by party identity that errors were made:

arizona-poll-nonsense
What The Arizona Republic had to do in order to get their Hillary Clinton narrative in the headlines

Thrown into the RCP average, the Arizona Republic swings the average to 0.2% in favor of Clinton.

arizona-poll-nonsense-2
How the Arizona Republic release today manipulates the RCP
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Post source : The Conservative Treehouse

About The Author

Samuel Maxime is a Haitian-born citizen living in the United States. He founded The Haiti Sentinel to bring Haitian issues to an English language audience.

Comments

  1. […] more Democrats than actual. It underpolled Republicans by 2% and 9% points respectively. A wilder poll taken in Arizona, which prompted headlines from the Washington Post and New York Times, purporting the state […]