Tuesday, December 12, 2017
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ABC Poll showing big Clinton lead reaffirms ‘rigged system’

Samuel Maxime

Editor-in-Chief

WASHINGTON, D.C. (sentinel.ht) – The ABC/Washington Post poll was among three national polls released Sunday. The ABC/WaPo poll showed Hillary Clinton with a 12-percentage point lead over Donald Trump, while the other two showed the race tied or Trump with a slight 1-percentage point lead.

Tracking Polls, Sunday October 23, 2016 | Real Clear Politics
Poll Clinton Trump Spread
LA Times/USC 44% 44% Tie
IBD/TIPP 42% 43% Trump +1
ABC/WaPo 53% 41% Clinton +12

In its polling report, ABC said that Clinton’s double-digit lead is boosted by wide disapproval of Donald Trump. They used the findings in the poll to bring up alleged sexual assault claims launched against Trump in the last month before the vote.

Although the two other polls, the LA Times (formerly the Rand poll) and the IBD/TIPP poll, were the most accurate polls in 2012, correctly determining the final vote spread, it was the ABC/WaPo poll that was widely referred to during the Sunday morning news shows. This is feeding fuel to the fiery rhetoric of Donald Trump that his candidacy is up against a rigged system.

The important discrepancy with the ABC News poll that is not being reported by news agencies such as CNN is that its sample diverges greatly from actual U.S. party identification.

The ABC/WaPo poll over-samples Democrats by more than 6-percentage points. It under-samples Republicans and Independents, by 2-percentage and 9-percentage points, respectively. These are significant under-samplings especially given that independents have been breaking for Donald Trump 2:1.

ABC/WaPo versus Actual Party Identification Sampling
Party ABC/WaPo Actual Variance
Democrats 36% 31% +5%
Independents 31% 40% -9%
Republicans 27% 28% -2%
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About The Author

Samuel Maxime is a Haitian-born citizen living in the United States. He founded The Haiti Sentinel to bring Haitian issues to an English language audience.

Comments

  1. […] up on actually campaigning for votes in swing states to instead run a psy-op which began with an ABC poll released […]

  2. […] the Sunday news shows cited the ABC poll but did not disclose that the sample had 5% points more Democrats than actual. It underpolled […]